Way-too-early Top 25: College football rankings for 2024 are heavy on SEC, Big Ten

The door is closed on the 2023 college season with Michigan’s 34-13 win against Washington to claim the national championship.

So let’s start talking about 2024. Where will the Wolverines land in the USA TODAY Sports way-too-early Top 25 given the uncertainty over whether Jim Harbaugh returns for another year? Can the Huskies make another title run as members of the Big Ten?

But those two teams are chasing the SEC. This early glimpse at the Top 25 starts with Georgia and Alabama, followed by Michigan and Texas. Rounding out the top are Mississippi, Notre Dame, Oregon, Oklahoma, Ohio State and LSU.

It’s a way-too-early list that’s heavy on the Big Ten and SEC. Those two powerhouse leagues make up the entire top five, nine of the top 10 and 15 of the 25 teams overall.

Here’s our guess for how things will look at the end of next season:

1. Georgia (2023 record: 13-1)

After this year's setback, the Bulldogs start their quest to get back to the top of the college football mountain with Carson Beck returning as one of the elite quarterbacks in the country. Incoming Florida transfer Trevor Etienne will help at running back, and there’s enough talent at receiver and tight end to make this an upper-echelon offense. The defense was slightly down in 2023 but should be capable of getting back to its usual high standard with LB Smael Mondon and DB Malaki Starks leading the way.

2. Alabama (12-2)

An SEC championship berth and appearance in the College Football Playoff were things to celebrate in a season the Crimson Tide were in rebuilding mode. QB Jalen Milroe blossomed in the second half of the season and finished sixth in the Heisman voting. With more improvement, he should carry the offense with RB Justice Haynes becoming the top ball carrier. The defense has two big holes at cornerback and loses other key contributors. The group should still be good enough to have them near the top of the polls all season.

3. Michigan (15-0)

This is based on Jim Harbaugh returning in 2024, which might not be a sure thing given the chance he returns to the NFL. But with Harbaugh and quarterback J.J. McCarthy potentially back in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines will bring back the two big pieces behind this year's run. Michigan will need to rebuild the offensive line and running back position and replace several defensive starters but has proven adept at finding key contributors in the transfer portal.

4. Texas (12-2)

QB Quinn Ewers seems likely to return to lead the offense and will be supported by a veteran group of linemen. The only glaring concern is at receiver with the top five contributors departing, including WR Xavier Worthy and TE Ja’Tavion Sanders. The defense looks in excellent shape with LB Anthony Hill an emerging star and the secondary having more experience and some new arrivals. The biggest question is how the team adjusts to needing to be on its game every week, with an unforgiving SEC schedule and a non-conference game against Michigan.

5. Mississippi (11-2)

Expectations are high for the Rebels off a season that finished with an impressive win over Penn State in the Peach Bowl and losses only to Alabama and Georgia. Jaxson Dart will be in his third season starting at quarterback for Lane Kiffin’s offense, and WR Tre Harris should put up big numbers. Kiffin again hit the transfer portal hard to shore up key spots that should have Ole Miss well-positioned to make a run at the playoff.

6. Notre Dame (10-3)

Two key additions will define Notre Dame's 2024 season and make the Fighting Irish one of the leading contenders for the playoff. One is the hire of new offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock, whose 2023 offense at LSU led the nation in yards per play. The second is former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard. His ability as a runner could bring a new wrinkle to the Irish. One of the top defenses in the FBS could use another year from safety Xavier Watts, who may enter the draft.

7. Oregon (11-2)

Oregon's physical playing style under Dan Lanning will make the transition to the Big Ten a smooth one. The Ducks are also set to reload at quarterback, with Dillon Gabriel coming in from Oklahoma to replace Bo Nix. Gabriel will be able to throw to 1,000-yard receiver Tez Johnson while the running game leans on rising junior Jordan James. The program's trajectory under Lanning means a playoff berth is in the future.

8. Oklahoma (10-3)

The Sooners went from six wins to 10, including a victory over Texas, in Brent Venables’ second season. Will that upward trend continue in the SEC with a schedule that is much deeper? QB Jackson Arnold showed promise and inexperience in the Alamo Bowl loss to Arizona. How quickly he and a rebuilt offensive line get up to speed will determine if this team can be in the playoff mix. The defense has standouts LB Danny Stutsman and DB Billy Bowman among its leaders. The unit has made great strides in two years under Venables and looks better-positioned to adjust to life in the SEC.

9. Ohio State (11-2)

The Buckeyes will again be one of the most-talented teams in the country. Adding Will Howard from Kansas State answers the biggest question: Who will be the QB? They also bring back defensive lineman Jack Sawyer and could return fellow end JT Tuimoloau, which would be one of the most formidable pairings in the country. The defense also returns linebacker Cody Simon and safety Lathan Ransom. But can the Buckeyes beat Michigan?

10. LSU (10-3)

Things will look very different for the Tigers with Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and their top two receivers headed to the NFL. Garrett Nussmeier showed in the team’s bowl game he is capable of putting up big numbers, albeit in a different fashion. The defense is getting a makeover as Brian Kelly let go several staff members on that side of the ball. There’s still enough talent to have a competitive season that will need to meet high expectations in Baton Rouge.

11. Clemson (9-4)

Losing RB Will Shipley to the NFL makes it a little less likely the Clemson offense finally improves in 2024. Unproven backs like redshirt freshman Jarvis Green will have to step up and help returning QB Cade Klubnik, who should benefit from another year under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. While questioning the offense, you have to like the pieces the Tigers bring back on defense, including veteran DB R.J. Mickens and two very promising DL in TJ Parker and Peter Woods. The Tigers kick off the season against Georgia but have a manageable schedule from there.

12. Tennessee (9-4)

The first serious look at heralded quarterback Nico Iamaleava was a success in the team’s bowl win against Iowa. Now the rising sophomore gets the reins of the offense. The biggest concern is getting help at receiver to overcome some of his growing pains and get the offense closer to its elite level from 2022. The defense needs to build on a better performance this past season but took some hits in the transfer portal.

13. Arizona (10-3)

The Wildcats finished as one of the hottest teams in the country after winning their last seven games. They are one of the Big 12 favorites entering their first season in the league. Noah Fifita assumed the quarterback job midway through the season and threw for 25 touchdowns. WR Tetairoa McMillan and RB Jonah Coleman will be key components of an elite offense. The defense is poised to have its five leading tacklers back.

14. Missouri (11-2)

Mizzou is another program that exceeded expectations and returns a strong core. QB Brady Cook and WR Luther Burden make for one of the better passer-receiver combinations in the SEC. Some targeted portal arrivals – RB Marcus Carroll (Georgia State), OL Cayden Green (Oklahoma) and DB Toriano Pride Jr. (Clemson) – address needs and should put Eliah Drinkwitz’s team near the top of the conference.

15. Penn State (10-3)

The factors that will determine Penn State’s offense in 2024? What the Nittany Lions will get (if anything) at WR, how well they break in a rebuilt offensive line and whether QB Drew Allar will blossom under new coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who worked wonders in the same role at Kansas. If all goes right, Penn State could win the Big Ten or at least land an at-large playoff bid. On defense, former Indiana coach Tom Allen takes over coordinator duties for a unit that looks very good in the front seven but has to find reliable defenders in the secondary to surround rising junior DB Cam Miller.

16. Utah (8-5)

The two biggest returners for the Utes didn’t play a down last season. QB Cam Rising and TE Brant Kuithe were sidelined with knee injuries from the 2022 campaign but opted to return for their final season. Rising – if he can return to form – solves one of the biggest issues from 2023. One consistency for Utah is defense, and next year's group should be formidable as it heads into a winnable Big 12 with no elite team.

17. Washington (14-1)

There will be some big losses on offense, including key pieces up front, wide receiver Rome Odunze and, of course, quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The Huskies will need some improvement on defense to balance things out and succeed in the Big Ten, especially with standout end Bralen Trice headed for the NFL. Still, you have to respect what Kalen DeBoer has done in his two seasons; based on his track record, it seems very unlikely that Washington drops off the national map.

18. Florida State (13-1)

Getting back to the doorstep of the playoff might be a tall ask of a team that needs to unearth a new starting quarterback to replace Jordan Travis. But even with Travis and star DL Jared Verse gone, there’s plenty of talent in Tallahassee. The Seminoles have been boosted by several players who opted to come back in 2024, including RB Lawrance Toafili, DE Byron Turner Jr. and OL Darius Washington. This will be an experienced team that may be only a QB away from another ACC title … and this time a playoff berth.

19. Southern California (8-5)

It’s all moot if USC doesn’t find a defense. Not to mention the offense loses Caleb Williams, though Miller Moss looked the part in the bowl win against Louisville. Defensive issues plus a QB change plus the unpredictability of this year’s move to the Big Ten make the Trojans, well, hard to predict. But the offense should remain potent without Williams and could catch Big Ten teams off guard. The defense can only get better under new coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who did great work at rival UCLA. That and Lincoln Riley’s overall track record makes it easier to pick the Trojans to land somewhere in the Top 25.

20. Oklahoma State (9-4)

The news that QB Alan Bowman was granted an additional year drastically changes the outlook for the Cowboys. Bowman’s steady play helped lead the team to the Big 12 title game. His return, along with RB Ollie Gordon and WR Brennan Pressley, give Oklahoma State a bright outlook on offense. There are several key pieces back on defense, with LBs Nickolas Martin and Collin Oliver and DB Kendal Daniels.

21. North Carolina State (9-4)

After a sneakily successful 2023 season, the Wolfpack are in position to remain near the top of the ACC with some key transfers. One is former Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall, who has to stay healthy but should be an upgrade. He'll throw to rising sophomore KC Concepcion, one of the top young skill talents in the Power Five. N.C. State can also look to newcomers such as Villanova transfer Devon Marshall to replace both starting cornerbacks.

22. Kansas (9-4)

The rise of the Jayhawks continues under Lance Leipold. This might be his best team yet with QB Jalon Daniels committed to returning after a back injury sidelined him for much of 2023. Also staying is RB Devin Neal, as do the top three receivers, which could make this the best offense in the Big 12. How far this team goes will depend on the defense, which has some holes to fill.

23. Memphis (10-3)

The Tigers’ offensive line has been decimated by transfers to the Power Five, so it’s possible that prolific QB Seth Henigan and this offense struggle a bit while finding a new starting cast. But Memphis still has the pieces to be the top team in the Group of Five and a playoff team in the new 12-team field, especially given the way the defense played under new defensive coordinator Jordan Hankins in the Liberty Bowl win against Iowa State. More consistency on that side of the ball will help the Tigers get to the top of the American.

24. Iowa (10-4)

Don’t look for Kirk Ferentz to lean into a spread offense, obviously, but it will be interesting to see what direction Iowa takes on this side of the ball with his new hire at coordinator to replace his son Brian. For the second year in a row, the Hawkeyes hope to keep QB Cade McNamara healthy. If so, and the offense rises to just average, Iowa could again sneak up the Big Ten standings and make a run at a major bowl. There are no concerns at all on defense.

25. Virginia Tech (7-6)

Virginia Tech is set to make a leap after posting a winning record in coach Brent Pry's second season. The Hokies bring back all 11 starters on offense, led by quarterback Kyron Drones, who had 22 total touchdowns and three interceptions in 2023. They've also added three defensive linemen from the portal, including all-conference tackle Aeneas Peebles from Duke. With the wide majority of starters back in the fold, Tech could make a run in the ACC.